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Taking A Look At Boston's Final 43 Games, And Its Chances Of Making The Playoffs

With the Red Sox having an off-day Monday, and set to start an eight-game home stand Tuesday night, it seems a fine time to take stock, and look at what remains for the 2010 season -- and what Boston's chances are to make the playoffs.

After Monday's games -- the Yankees lost and the Rays won -- the Red Sox are 5.5 games back from those co-leaders in the A.L. East, and, since New York and Tampa are tied, also the same distance out in the Wild Card.

Both are on pace currently to finish the season with 98.82 wins ... let's just say 99-63. So just to tie, the Sox will have to go 32-11 in their final 43 games -- put another way, Boston needs to win three of every four games.

But there's hope. Maybe.

Twenty-four of the Sox' final 43 games are at Fenway, where they win about 60 percent of the time (as opposed to 53 percent of the time on the road).

For what it's worth, the Rays play 24 of their last 44 on the road (Tampa actually has a slightly better mark on the road than they do at home), while New York has 21 away from Yankee Stadium, where they win 64 percent of the time (just 58 percent on the road).

As it is now, says Boston has a 14.9 percent chance of making the playoffs (to compare, the Yanks and Rays both have an 88 percent chance).

But most likely, the season will come down to just 12 games: six with Tampa Bay (in a 13-day span) and then six with New York in a 10-day stretch to close out the season. Let's just hope Boston is still relevant by then.