SB Nation Boston: All Posts by Craig Powers

Big blitzing in college football: Does it actually matter?

2013-05-03T13:00:06Z

The big blitz can create some exciting plays on both sides of the ball. A linebacker getting to the quarterback untouched on a six-man rush creates violent collisions and large losses. A cornerback left on an island when one of those blitzes gets picked up could lead to a easy deep ball toss.

More: Jarvis Jones as a Steeler Big Ten's new divisions Alabama is still good

But are those plays even that relevant in the grand scheme of things?

For this exercise, a "big blitz" will be defined as when the defense sends six or more rushers into the backfield. That number means the offense will either have to leave a tight end or running back to protect, or try and exploit five-on-five in the secondary before the rush gets home.

Football Study Hall recorded the number of men rushing the quarterback on 8,165 plays last season, and it was six or higher just 379 times, or 4.6 percent of the plays. That's not all that surprising, considering that coaches are generally averse to taking risks and sending that many rushers is, in theory, a pretty big gamble.

What is interesting is how the statistics from that sample of 379 plays compare to the greater overall sample.

The average yards per play for all plays was 5.5 with a standard deviation of 9.6 (side note: Holy cow, college football plays are highly variable). Around half of the total plays fell between zero and eight yards.

Big blitzes yielded an average of 5.8 yards per play with a 12.5 standard deviation. On the surface, it looks like blitzes create more variation (which would make sense), but the higher SD is likely more a product of the smaller sample size.

So, if those averages were stretched out over the course of an entire game, that might lead to a 1 1/2 or two yard difference. That isn't all that significant.

But the numbers look a lot more impressive when adding that nearly all of the plays involving a big blitz were passes (343 of 379 were dropbacks to be exact). So, it might be more useful to compare those plays to the passing plays in FSH's data set. (Note from Bill: Logging pass rushers isn't a charting requirement on runs, so a lot of the 36 rushes in this data set are of the "unplanned scramble" variety.)

Passes averaged 6.6 yards per play overall, but just 5.5 against the big blitz.

Of course, when a coach dials up a big blitz, he isn't really concerned about an "average" play. The goal is generally to create some havoc in the form of negative yardage or a turnover. Big blitzes generated negative plays 10 percent of the time, compared to eight percent overall. Interceptions happened on 3.3 percent of passes with pressure coming, against two percent on the whole.

It appears that the big blitzes are actually doing what they are intended to do. With such a drop off in production and a rise in turnovers against the six rushers or more, does that mean coaches should start sending the house more often?

That's where things get a little tricky. The big blitzes come most often in passing situations (exemplified by all the dropbacks). Plays are less successful on passing downs overall, so the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

After all that, do big blitzes matter? Maybe not all that much, considering the context in which they come and how rare they really are. However, it's probably a good sign for blitz-happy coaches in college football that sending six or more at the quarterback helps at least as much as it hurts.

NFL Draft results 2013: Eagles select Matt Barkley to start the 4th round

2013-04-27T16:12:07Z

With the 98th overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft, the Philadelphia Eagles selected USC Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley. Barkley is the No. 56 overall player and No. 2 quarterback prospect in this year's draft class, according to SB Nation's Dan Kadar.

Barkley, 21, was a highly ranked high school prospect after winning the Gatorade National Player of the Year in 2007, and immediately took over as the starting quarterback at USC as a true freshman. In his final two seasons with the team, Barkley accumulated 6,801 yards, 75 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.

"He doesn't have the strongest arm, but he can put the ball on you," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said on NFL Network. "It's about the player, not the plays. They're going to run plays to take advantage of his skill set."

New head coach Chip Kelly has an interesting quarterback situation on his hands this season. The Eagles brought back Michael Vick on a restructured deal. They also have Nick Foles, who took over for a struggling Vick last season. With Barkley on the roster now, it could mean that one of the other signal callers ends up elsewhere for the 2013 season.

In a prospect profile at Big Cat Country, SB Nation's Alfie Crow breaks down Barkley's game:

Overall Barkley's ceiling is likely going to be a mid-level NFL starter, like Andy Dalton, but Barkley doesn't move around and change his launch point as well as Dalton does. A team is going to have to develop a specific offense around Barkley for him to be successful, revolving around three and five step drops in a rhythm passing game. I have Barkley as a third round pick and a primary back up, mid-range starter in the NFL.

Combine results

Height: 6'3
Weight: 227 pounds
Hand size: 10.13 inches
40-yard dash: 4.84 seconds

In Barkley's senior season, the Trojans entered the year as the preseason No. 1, but struggled, losing six games on the year and finishing the season unranked. In a November loss against the UCLA Bruins, Barkley suffered a separated shoulder, which kept him out of the final two games of the season. He finished the year with 3,273 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

More from SB Nation:

• Geno Smith going to Jets, predicts playoffs

• Manti Te'o fills need for Chargers

• The Honey Badger heads to Arizona

• NFL draft results: 1st round | 2nd round

• Complete Day 2 picks and analysis

• NFL draft grades: Reviewing the first round

2013 NFL Draft results: Star Lotulelei selected by Panthers with No. 14 pick

2013-04-26T01:53:09Z

With the 14th overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft, the Carolina Panthers selected the Utah Utes' Star Lotulelei. The defensive tackle was rated as the No. 2 overall prospect on SB Nation's Top 200 Big Board, and the best available at his position.

Lotulelei didn't come out of high school as a sure-fire NFL first rounder. He first played a year at Snow College before transferring to Utah, and played primarily as a backup for the Utes until the end of his sophomore season. The 6'2, 311-pound tackle didn't start making a major impact until his junior season, when he recorded nine tackles-for-loss. He rose up draft boards as senior, showing his ability to rush the passer with five sacks.

Lotulelei, once believed to be the draft's top prospect before health concerns came up, is a steal in the mid-first-round for Carolina, who addressed a key need at the defensive tackle spot.

For SB Nation's Dan Kadar, Lotulelei's ability to disrupt an offense is based on explosion:

In the run game, Lotulelei's game is based around his first step. Not only is it quick, but he does a good job of anticipating the snap count. When he can get off the line of scrimmage fast, it allows him to get leverage on offensive linemen and move them around. Lotulelei is powerful throughout his frame, so he can use his upper body to move linemen around and his legs to drive them backward. He has quick hands to shed blockers and move toward the ball.

Combine Results

Height: 6'2

Weight: 311 pounds

Arm length: 33 5/8 inches

Hands: 9 3/4 inches

Lotulelei didn't participate in any of the drills at the NFL Combine. The most important discovery for him at the event was an irregular heartbeat. Fortunately, doctors at the University of Utah have found that it is not the result of a chronic condition, according to the USA Today.

Lotulelei should provide instant help in the middle of the defensive line. He has room to grow in terms of technical abilities, but his size and explosiveness are already enough to compete in the NFL.

More from SB Nation:

• NFL draft results: All the first-round picks

• Rules for the NFL draft drinking game

• Spencer Hall: Scouting the draft scouts

• Top 9 NFL draft storylines

• The worst NFL draft picks of the century

• What does your team need? Breaking down every team

NFL Draft results 2013: Chance Warmack selected by Titans with No. 10 pick

2013-04-26T01:27:59Z

With the No. 10 pick in the 2013 NFL draft, the Tennessee Titans selected Alabama's Chance Warmack. The offensive lineman was the No. 1 guard available and No. 3 overall prospect in draft rankings by SB Nation's Dan Kadar.

Warmack started his final three years at Alabama and became one of the strongest players in all of college football. That allowed him to be a mauler at the left guard position, and he manhandled defensive lineman in support of the Crimson Tide's dominant running game. Warmack was a unanimous All-American his senior season and was penalized just twice all year.

The Titans signed Andy Levitre in free agency, and now they have solidified the interior of their offensive line. Chris Johnson will surely be pleased running behind Warmack.

Top-flight strength at the guard position is enough to get attention from any NFL team, but SB Nation's Matthew Fairburn points out that Warmack is technically sound as well:

While many will first point to Warmack's strength and some of the eye-popping blocks he made this season, his most impressive trait to me is his consistent technique. In fact, I've never seen anyone quite as technically sound at the position. Warmack always plays with ideal pad level, getting lower that his counterpart and using that leverage to open holes in the running game. He's smart with his blocks, attacking the proper shoulder and makes very few mistakes.

Combine Results

Height: 6'2

Weight: 317 pounds

Arms: 34 3/4 inches

Hands: 9 5/8 inches

40-yard dash: 5.49 seconds

Broad jump: 110 inches

More from SB Nation:

• NFL mock draft: Two rounds -- with trades!

• Brian Banks, wrongfully convicted of rape, signs with Falcons

• Do Bears fans want Brian Urlacher back?

• This year's NFL draft class short on QB options

• Why did the 49ers trade for Colt McCoy?

• NFL Mock Draft: SB Nation bloggers are on the clock

NFL Draft results 2013: Lane Johnson selected by Philadelphia Eagles with 4th pick

2013-04-26T00:45:49Z

With the No. 4 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles selected Oklahoma's Lane Johnson. The offensive lineman was rated 13th-best overall and the No. 3 tackle prospect in the draft rankings from SB Nation's Dan Kadar.

It's likely that Johnson always harbored dreams of being a top-10 draft pick, but when he graduated from high school he probably wasn't expecting it to come as an offensive tackle. Johnson started his college career as a quarterback at Kilgore College before transferring to Oklahoma to play either tight end or defensive end. By the time fall camp before his junior season rolled around, he had settled in on the offensive line and went on to make 23 starts at the tackle positions. His senior-year performance garnered an All-Big 12 second-team accolades.

The Eagles have Jason Peters at left tackle, but age and injuries are concerning for the future. Todd Herremans is a decent starter at right tackle, but Johnson provides depth there as well if they need him to slide.

Johnson could be starting ahead of Peters by the start of the season. He has a great chance to beat out at least one of the two tackles the Eagles have right now with his talent.

Johnson's versatility is one of his best assets, according to SB Nation's Matthew Fairburn:

He has spent time at both left and right tackle during his career and has even switched off between the two during games. He has the body control to play in space and line up wherever the offense needs him in a given situation.

Combine Results

Height: 6'6

Weight: 303 pounds

Arms: 35 1/4"

Hands: 10 1/8"

40-yard dash: 4.72 seconds

Bench press: 28 reps

Vertical jump: 34"

Broad jump: 118"

Three-cone drill: 7.31 seconds

20-yard shuttle: 4.52 seconds

More from SB Nation:

• Our final NFL mock draft has a new No. 1 pick

• Rules for the NFL draft drinking game

• Spencer Hall: Scouting the draft scouts

• Top 9 NFL draft storylines

• The worst NFL draft picks of the century

• What does your team need? Breaking down every team

2013 NFL Draft results: Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Fisher

2013-04-26T00:16:42Z

Eric Fisher of Central Michigan is the first overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the highest player ever selected from the MAC and a surprise after months of speculation had Luke Joeckel as the likely first pick. Fisher was listed as the 10th-best prospect overall and No. 2 offensive tackle in draft rankings by SB Nation's Dan Kadar.

The Chiefs have been on the clock since the final whistle of the 2012 season, but their selection didn't become clear until the final hours before the draft. At first, it seemed as if they'd go with a quarterback, considering their quarterbacks for a 2-14 season were Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel. But common wisdom said that there was no clear-cut franchise quarterback in the draft, and when the team traded for Alex Smith, a former No. 1 pick himself, quarterback was no longer a need.

So it seemed they'd take the best player available, generally considered to be one of the elite offensive tackles such as Texas A&M's Joeckel or perhaps Fisher, someone who didn't get a lot of attention playing at a mid-major in college. The problem? The team already had a left tackle, Branden Albert, a former first-round pick himself who was handed a franchise-tag in March.

The team has seemingly agreed to a trade with the Miami Dolphins for Albert, and although that's on hold for now it seems likely they'll deal their incumbent starter, opening up the position for their new top pick. As the day wore on Thursday, it became clear that the team would opt for Fisher over Joeckel, ending the drama. If Albert is out of the picture, Fisher will probably start right away and protect Smith's blindside for the near future.

Fisher made 34 starts along the offensive line in his time at Central Michigan, but didn't truly blossom into an elite talent until his senior year. His only accolade prior to last season was a third-team All-MAC selection as a junior. In 2012, Fisher was named first-team All-MAC as well as third-team AP All-American. Standing taller than 6'7 and weighing more than 300 pounds puts Fisher at a prototypical size for a tackle in the NFL, and that played a big part in his first-round selection.

Athleticism is likely Fisher's biggest asset, and Kadar believes that allows him to move quickly to and protect a larger area. After his obvious size, the first thing one notices about Fisher is his footwork. The former high school basketball player is nimble working laterally and beat pass-rushers to the edge. Because he's so athletic and quick-footed, Fisher can cover a wide area in pass protection.

Combine Results

Height: 6'7

Weight: 306

Arms: 34 ½"

Hands: 10 ½"

40-yard dash: 5.05 seconds

Bench press: 27 reps

Vertical jump: 28 ½ inches

Broad jump: 116 inches

Three-cone drill: 7.59 seconds

20-yard shuttle: 4.44 seconds

More from SB Nation:

• NFL mock draft: Two rounds -- with trades!

• Brian Banks, wrongfully convicted of rape, signs with Falcons

• Do Bears fans want Brian Urlacher back?

• This year's NFL draft class short on QB options

• Why did the 49ers trade for Colt McCoy?

• NFL Mock Draft: SB Nation bloggers are on the clock

WSU Spring football: Crimson and Gray Game open thread

2013-04-20T20:00:06Z

The Washington State Cougars face the Washington State Cougars on Saturday afternoon, with the winner to gain nothing but pride and a strong sense of self-worth. Mike Leach and his staff will be participating in their second spring game, and this year's edition has a very different feel.

There will be plenty of watch. The battle at quarterback is the most interesting. Last year Jeff Tuel was nearly perfect against the WSU defense, but it didn't really translate to the fall. Many expect the defense to be better this season, so will our observations be more relevant? Probably not, because spring football and such.

The game will be televised by Pac-12 Networks at 2 p.m. PT. This must be the first time that a Washington State practice has been broadcast nationally. Allen Iverson does not approve.

Join us in the comments for unbridled enthusiasm and good times. Go Cougs! Beat the Cougs!

WSU spring football: Running backs battle for top spot on depth chart in Crimson and Gray game

2013-04-20T16:23:42Z

The graduation of Carl Winston has left the top running back spot on the depth chart open, and there are a number of candidates battling it out for playing time this spring. There are three returners that were used in relevant roles last season and a junior college transfer who redshirted last season all vying for a shot.

More: Crimson and Gray game Tailgater's guide

There is another likely to be in the mix this fall: Arizona transfer Daniel Jenkins. He comes to Washington State as a senior, so there is a strong possibility that Mike Leach and his staff have him in the plan.

Here is a rundown of the scholarship running backs to watch out for at the Crimson and Gray game:

Leon Brooks, RS SR, 5'7, 172

Brooks has been primarily a punt returner in his three seasons as a Coug. Last season, he rushed the ball 12 times for 78 yards and a touchdown while catching seven passes for 22 yards. Brooks is the only returning Cougar with a rushing score last season.

The attributes that make him a good punt returner (he's right around 10 yards per return in his career) do make him dangerous on offense. He has the ability to make players miss and break off chunks of yardage, but doesn't have the durability to get a high number of touches.

He was arrested for DUI in January, so Brooks may have to earn his way back to the staff's good side.

Teondray Caldwell, SO, 5'8, 197

Caldwell was WSU's most effective back when healthy in 2012. He tallied 289 yards on 56 carries for a 4.8 average as a true freshman. Caldwell wasn't all that effective in catching the ball, with 14 catches for 36 yards.

The sophomore is the biggest scholarship running back on the roster after putting on weight in the offseason. Perhaps he did so in preparation of taking on more of a role in short yardage plays.

He struggled on the ground in last Saturday's scrimmage, carrying the ball three times for negative-eight yards. Caldwell also added four catches for 17 yards.

Marcus Mason, JR, 5'9, 187

Mason was buried on the depth chart last year, but did get opportunities late in the season. He was wholly ineffective when rushing the ball, amassing just 15 yards on 12 carries. Mason was most useful catching the ball out of the backfield, where he grabbed 14 balls for 88 yards and a touchdown.

He might be the fastest WSU running back, but he has had trouble getting loose to use that speed against Pac-12 competition. Mason did little in the Cougs' latest scrimmage, carrying three times for negative-four and making one catch for four yards.

Theron West, RS JR, 5'7, 172

West transferred in from LA Harbor College in 2012 and sat out last season as a redshirt. He's another speedy back, and seems to have gained some favor in the spring. He led all running backs with six carries and 26 yards last Saturday and caught one pass for 29 yards.

SB Nation Boston: All Posts by Craig Powers

Big blitzing in college football: Does it actually matter?

NFL Draft results 2013: Eagles select Matt Barkley to start the 4th round

Combine results

More from SB Nation:

2013 NFL Draft results: Star Lotulelei selected by Panthers with No. 14 pick

Combine Results

More from SB Nation:

NFL Draft results 2013: Chance Warmack selected by Titans with No. 10 pick

Combine Results

More from SB Nation:

NFL Draft results 2013: Lane Johnson selected by Philadelphia Eagles with 4th pick

Combine Results

More from SB Nation:

2013 NFL Draft results: Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Fisher

MAC blog Hustle Belt on Fisher

Combine Results

More from SB Nation:

WSU Spring football: Crimson and Gray Game open thread

WSU spring football: Running backs battle for top spot on depth chart in Crimson and Gray game

Leon Brooks, RS SR, 5'7, 172

Teondray Caldwell, SO, 5'8, 197

Marcus Mason, JR, 5'9, 187

Theron West, RS JR, 5'7, 172